融资租赁信用风险评价体系研究-以X光伏项目为例(硕士)

融资租赁信用风险评价体系研究-以X光伏项目为例(硕士)(论文40000字)
摘要
融资租赁是集融资与融物于一体的新型金融产业，是现代化大生产条件下产生的实物信用与银行信用相结合的新型金融服务形式，作为企业融资渠道的有益补充及盘活存量资产的有效手段，业务规模在全球范围内快速扩大，正逐渐发展成为仅次于银行信贷的第二大融资方式。我国融资租赁业开始于20世纪80年代，虽然相对于发达国家的成熟市场起步较晚，但是随着配套的政策法规的不断完善、业务模式的成熟以及市场融资需求的持续扩大，近年来行业高速发展，2015年成为仅次于美国的全球第二大交易市场。
然而，我国融资租赁业在快速发展的同时也面临着诸多风险和问题，特别是承租人的信用风险管理问题。首先，由于承租人和出租人信息的不对称，融资租赁企业本身就处于风险管理的劣势地位；其次，由于我国社会信用环境的缺失，使得承租人的违约成本相对较低，加大了融资租赁企业的信用风险；最后，由于融资租赁企业自身过分追求业务增长而淡化了风险管理意识，加之信用风险评价手段相对落后、未能健全风险控制体系等原因，进一步加大了融资租赁企业的信用风险。可以说，信用风险管理问题已经成为制约我国融资租赁行业健康发展的重要因素。其中，信用风险评价作为融资租赁企业信用风险管理的核心部分，对整个融资租赁交易起到重要的风险防范作用。因此，如何更加科学、有效地识别和评价融资租赁业务中的信用风险，从而保障和实现行业的可持续健康发展成为现阶段亟待解决的重要课题。
融资租赁作为新兴的金融产业，针对其特有的信用风险研究相对较少，目前国内外学术界的相关研究仍主要围绕在信用风险的类型、产生机制以及风险度量模型理论等方面开展。特别是在我国目前仍不具备现代信用风险度量模型的应用基础、相关的实证研究比较缺乏的大背景下，借鉴外部机构成熟的信用评级原理来构建符合融资租赁特点的信用风险评价体系应该是更为科学有效的方法。
在构建融资租赁信用风险评价体系时，首先要充分考虑融资租赁“融资”与“融物”相结合的基本特征及其“债权风险”与“物权风险”共存的信用风险特征，按照以承租人信用为核心、以租赁物为关键的“信用+租赁物”体系进行统筹考量。其次，要遵循目的性原则、系统性原则和现实可操作性原则，并且确保能够获得足够且真实的信用风险评价所需的基础资料。
构建的融资租赁信用风险评价体系应该科学、系统、动态，因此要在“基础评价+综合信用评级”的框架下，根据不同的风险因素、不同的行业特点，以动态调整的原则设定评价标准。首先，在对信用风险进行评级之前采用“5C”+“1P”要素分析法、财务报表分析法、现金流预测法和租赁物定性分析法对承租人的还款能力、还款意愿以及租赁物的风险进行定性和定量相结合的基础分析，以对信用风险的整体状况有一个初步的认识和评价。然后，在此基础上对融资租赁业务中的信用风险进行综合的信用评级。信用评级是指对影响授信主体的信用风险因素进行分析，就其还款能力、还款意愿和租赁物风险进行综合评价，最后用信用等级符号进行表示。所谓综合信用评级，是指将影响信用风险的因素按照“财务因素”和“非财务因素”加以划分，并依据不同的评价方法和标准进行评分，最后加权两部分得分对信用风险进行综合评级。针对“财务因素”，选取反映盈利能力状况、资产质量状况、债务风险状况和经营增长状况的财务评价指标，并借鉴中央企业综合财务指标评价方法按年度、行业、企业规模对承租人的财务状况进行综合评分；针对“非财务因素”，参考前人的理论研究结果及外部评级机构的评级方法选取反映企业基本素质、经营竞争力、外部环境、背景和外部支持以及租赁物风险的非财务评价指标，并采用AHP层次分析法设定各项指标的权重，最后由专家根据行业特点对影响信用风险的非财务因素进行综合评分。最后，“财务指标评价”与“非财务指标评价”的加权得分按照三等九级制的评价标准进行综合信用评级。
在融资租赁信用风险评价体系构建完成后，为佐证体系的有效性采用案例分析法进行验证。由于近年来，能源设备类融资租赁资产持续大幅增长，本次选取了光伏发电领域的实际案件作为验证对象，为融资租赁企业的信用风险管理实践提供一定的借鉴意义。
综上所述，希望通过研究融资租赁及其信用风险评价问题，以及运用综合信用评级模型构建符合融资租赁特点的“信用+租赁物”的信用风险评价体系的方法，能够帮助融资租赁企业形成更加科学有效的评价和管理信用风险，也为丰富融资租赁信用风险评价管理理论做出一定的贡献。最后，希望也能为我国融资租赁行业的持续健康发展贡献一定的力量。
由于作者自身理论知识及经验的不足且指标的选取存在一定的人为因素，构建的融资租赁信用风险评价体系未能覆盖全部信用风险评价因素；且仅针对光伏发电领域的项目进行了实证，由于每个行业都具有各自独特的风险特征，信用风险评价体系可能无法正确反映每个行业的信用风险情况，因此构建的融资租赁信用风险评价体系还存在一定的局限性，今后还将根据实践的深入进一步地加以完善和改进。

关键词：融资租赁；信用风险；信用风险评价；综合信用评级
 
Abstract
Financial leasing is a new type of financial industry ,has both the functions of financing capitals and financing goods..It is a new form of financial service combining physical credit with bank credit under the condition of modernized large-scale production. As an effective supplement to the financing channels of enterprises and an effective means of activating the existing assets , The scale of business expanded rapidly around the world and is gradually becoming the second largest financing method after the bank credit. China's financial leasing industry started in the 1980s. Although the mature market relative to the developed countries started relatively lately, with the continuous improvement of supporting policies and regulations, the maturity of business models and the continuous expansion of market financing demand, the industry has enjoyed a rapid growth in recent years Development in 2015 to become the world's second largest market after the United States.
However, the rapid development of China's financial leasing industry also faces many risks and problems, especially the lessee's credit risk management. First of all, due to the asymmetric information of the lessee and the lessor, the financial leasing enterprise itself is in a disadvantageous position of risk management. Secondly, due to the lack of social credit environment in our country, the lessee's default cost is relatively low, which increases the credit risk of the financial leasing enterprise. Finally, as the financial leasing enterprise itself over-pursuit of business growth and dilute the sense of risk management, coupled with the relatively backward credit risk evaluation methods, failed to improve the risk control system and other reasons, to further increase the financial leasing business credit risk . It can be said that the issue of credit risk management has become an important factor restricting the healthy development of China's financial leasing industry. Among them, credit risk assessment as a core part of credit risk management in financial leasing companies plays an important risk prevention role in the entire finance lease transaction. Therefore, how to identify and evaluate the credit risk in the financial leasing business more scientifically and effectively so that the sustainable and healthy development of the industry can be guaranteed and realized becomes an important issue to be solved urgently at this stage.
As a new financial industry, financial leasing has relatively few studies on its unique credit risk. At present, the related researches in domestic and overseas academic circles focus on the types of credit risk, the generating mechanism and the risk measurement model theory. Especially in our country, we still do not have the application foundation of the modern credit risk measurement model, and the relevant empirical research is lacking, we should build a credit risk evaluation system that accords with the characteristics of financing lease by referring to the mature credit rating principle of external institutions Scientific and effective way.
In constructing the credit risk evaluation system of financial leasing, we must first fully consider the basic characteristics of the combination of "financing" and "melt" of financial leasing and the characteristics of credit risk in which "credit risk" and "real estate risk" coexist. People credit as the core, with leasing as the key "credit + lease" system for overall consideration. Second, we should follow the principle of purpose, the principle of systematization and the principle of practical operability, and ensure that we can obtain the basic information necessary for a sufficient and true credit risk assessment.
The construction of the credit risk evaluation system for financial leasing should be scientific, systematic and dynamic. Therefore, under the framework of "basic evaluation + comprehensive credit rating", the evaluation criteria should be set according to different risk factors and different industry characteristics with the principle of dynamic adjustment . First of all, we use "5C" + "1P" elemental analysis, financial statement analysis, cash flow forecasting and qualitative analysis of leased property to evaluate the lessee's repayment ability, repayment willingness, Of the risk of qualitative and quantitative basis for the combination of a comprehensive analysis of the overall status of credit risk have a preliminary understanding and evaluation. Then, on the basis of this, we conduct a comprehensive credit rating on the credit risk in the financial leasing business. Credit rating refers to the credit risk factors that affect the main credit risk analysis, a comprehensive evaluation of its repayment ability, repayment willingness and the lease risk, and finally with the credit rating symbol. The so-called comprehensive credit rating refers to the factors that affect credit risk in accordance with the "financial factors" and "non-financial factors" to be divided according to different evaluation methods and standards for the score, the last two parts of the weighted average credit risk rating. According to the "financial factors", select the financial evaluation indicators that reflect the status of profitability, asset quality, debt risk status and business growth, and draw lessons from the assessment method of central enterprises comprehensive financial indicators on the financial position of the lessee by the year, industry, enterprise size According to the results of previous theoretical research and the rating methods of external rating agencies, non-financial evaluation reflecting the basic quality of enterprises, operating competitiveness, external environment, background and external support as well as the risk of leased property should be selected according to the "non-financial factors" Indicators, AHP method used to set the weight of the indicators, and finally by experts according to the characteristics of the industry on the impact of credit risk non-financial factors were scored. Finally, the weighted scores of "financial index evaluation" and "non-financial index evaluation" carry out comprehensive credit rating according to the evaluation standard of third-level nine-level system.
In view of the fact that after the completion of the construction of the credit risk assessment system of financial leasing, the paper uses the case analysis method to verify the effectiveness of the system.As a result of the continuous substantial growth of financial equipment leasing assets in recent years, this paper selected the actual Case as a verification object, to provide some reference for the practice of credit risk management of financial leasing enterprises.
To sum up, I hope through the study of financial leasing and credit risk assessment issues, as well as the use of integrated credit rating model to build a credit leasing "credit risk assessment system in line with the characteristics of financial leasing can help finance leasing companies to form more Scientific and effective evaluation and management of credit risk, but also to enrich the financial leasing credit risk management theory to make some contribution. Finally, I hope I can contribute a certain amount of strength to the sustained and healthy development of China's
financial leasing industry.
Due to the lack of theoretical knowledge and experience of the author and the selection of indicators there are certain human factors, the credit risk evaluation system of financial leasing can not cover all the factors of credit risk assessment. Only the empirical research is carried out for the projects in the field of photovoltaic power generation. Each industry has its own unique risk characteristics, the credit risk evaluation system may not be able to correctly reflect the credit risk of each industry situation, so the construction of the credit risk evaluation system of financial leasing there are some limitations, the future will be further based on practice To improve and improve.

Keywords: Financial leasing; Credit risk; Credit risk evaluation; Comprehensive credit rating
 
 
目录
第1章  绪论    1
1.1选题背景及意义    1
1.2研究框架和内容    4
1.3研究思路和方法    5
1.4论文的创新点    5
第2章  融资租赁信用风险相关理论回顾与分析    7
2.1融资租赁概述及特征分析    7
2.1.1融资租赁的定义    7
2.1.2融资租赁主要业务形式    9
2.1.3融资租赁主要特征分析    11
2.2融资租赁信用风险理论回顾    12
2.2.1融资租赁信用风险概念    14
2.2.2融资租赁信用风险分类    14
2.2.3信用风险产生原因    15
2.3融资租赁信用风险评价管理方法回顾    16
2.3.1融资租赁信用风险评价管理体系    16
2.3.2融资租赁信用风险度量方法    16
2.3.3租赁物风险评价方法    18
2.4本章小结    20
第3章 融资租赁信用风险评价体系构建    21
3.1融资租赁信用风险评价体系构建原则    21
3.1.1目的性原则    21
3.1.2系统性原则    21
3.1.3 现实可操作性原则    21
3.2信用风险评价基础信息收集及核查    21
3.2.1信用风险评价基础资料    22
3.2.2信息真实性与全面性核查    22
3.3融资租赁信用风险评价体系的基础评价框架    23
3.3.1承租人信用风险定性分析方法    23
3.3.2承租人财务状况定量分析方法    24
3.3.3租赁物风险定性分析方法    27
3.4融资租赁信用风险评价体系的综合信用评级    28
3.4.1适用范围    28
3.4.2财务指标评价    28
3.4.3非财务指标评价    30
3.4.4融资租赁信用风险的综合信用评级    37
3.5本章小结    39
第4章 X光伏融资租赁项目信用风险评价    40
4.1案例融资租赁公司情况介绍    40
4.2 案例项目信用风险基础评价    40
4.2.1案例项目基本情况介绍    40
4.2.2承租人及担保人定性分析    41
4.2.3担保人财务状况定量分析    44
4.2.3租赁物情况及风险定性分析    47
4.2.4光伏发电行业特殊风险分析    47
4.3 案例项目综合信用评级    48
4.3.1担保人财务指标评价    48
4.3.2担保人非财务指标评价    49
4.3.3担保人综合信用评级    49
4.4本章小结    50
第5章 结论与建议    51
5.1研究结论    51
5.2建议和启示    51
5.3研究局限及不足    52
参考文献    53
致谢    56