中国潜在经济增长率研究(硕士)

中国潜在经济增长率研究(硕士)(论文60000字)
摘 要
2015年中国人均GDP大约8000美元，成为中等偏上收入水平经济体。在此前后的国际金融危机冲击及国内外经济环境变化，使中国既有的以出口劳动密集型产品为导向的粗放型经济发展方式难以为继，中国的经济增长率逐步下行。2014年，习近平首次提出“新常态”，意味着经济增长将从高速增长转为中高速增长，也就是经济减速。当前，不管是学术界还是实务界对于经济减速基本达成共识。
但是，目前学术界甚至政府决策部门对本次经济减速的原因意见不一、莫衷一是。有的学者认为中国经济减速的原因是周期性的“需求不足”，也有的学者认为中国经济减速的原因是中国经济潜在增长率下降。
与此同时，当前国内外经济形势的变化，使我国社会各界普遍关注我国经济未来的增长走势。要实现中央提出的“十三五”规划发展目标和“2020年全面建成小康社会”的奋斗目标，我国经济需要在未来一段时间内保持较为稳定的中高速增长。然而，在当前我国经济持续走低的大背景下，经济学界对未来我国经济是否还能保持一个较高的增长速度存在争议。
要想认清当前中国经济减速的本质，要想对上述关于我国未来经济增长走势的争议有一个合理的答案，我们都必须知道当前及未来一段时间内中国经济的潜在增长率到底有多大。本文尝试回答这一问题。
已有的研究大多都是从单一的角度来研究中国的潜在经济增长率，且主要采用生产函数法从总供给的角度来展开研究。本文分别从总供给、短期总供给总需求均衡、一般均衡三个不同的视角细致深入研究中国的潜在经济增长率；然后对上述不同视角的测算研究结果进行总结；最后提出关于中国经济的政策建议。
对中国经济的潜在增长率的三个不同视角的研究都显示，从2010年以来，中国经济持续走低的主要原因是潜在增长率的下滑，并且，未来中国潜在增长率将会继续下降。因此，当前对于中国经济的宏观调控，要由对需求侧的管理转向以供给侧的管理为主。我们需要从供给侧进行结构性改革，着力提高潜在增长率，使中国经济形成一个L型的复苏。

关键词: 结构调整；产能过剩；潜在增长率；状态空间；动态随机一般均衡

Abstract
In 2015, China's GDP per capita was close to 8,000 U.S. dollars, becoming a medium-upper-income economy. The shock of the international financial crisis and the changes in the economic environment at home and abroad have made it difficult to be sustainable for China's existing extensive economic development mode oriented by exporting labor-intensive products. The economic growth rate of China has gradually declined. In 2014, Xi Jinping first proposed the "new normal", which means that economic growth will shift from rapid growth to medium-rapid growth, namely an economic slowdown. At present, both academics and practitioners basically agree on the economic slowdown.
However, academics and even decision-making departments of government have different views on the reasons for the slowdown of Chinese economy at present. Some scholars think that the reason for China's economic slowdown is the cyclical "lack of demand", and some scholars think that the reason for the slowdown of China's   economy is the drop in the potential growth rate of China's economy.
At the meantime, the current changes in the economic situation at home and abroad have caused the general concern of all sectors of our society about the growth trend of our economy in the future. In order to achieve the goal of  "13th Five-Year Plan"  and  "building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020"  which proposed by the Central Government, our economy needs to maintain a relatively stable high-speed growth in the near future. However, economic circles are still in dispute over whether China's economy will maintain a high growth rate in the future at the time when China's economy continues to decline.
To understand clearly the nature of the current economic slowdown in China, to have a reasonable answer to the controversy over the future trend of economic growth in our country, we must know how much the potential growth rate of China's economy in the medium and long term will be. This article attempts to answer this question.
Most of the existing research studies the potential economic growth rate of China from a single point of view, and mainly studies with method of production function from the perspective of total supply. In this paper, the potential economic growth rate in China is studied in details from three different perspectives: total supply, total supply-demand equilibrium and general equilibrium. Then the research results of these different perspectives are summarized. Finally the policy recommendations on China's economy was proposed.
The study of three different perspectives on the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy all shows that the main reason for the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy since 2010 is the decline in the potential growth rate and the potential growth rate in China will continue to decline in the future. Therefore, the current macroeconomic regulation and control of China's economy should be shifted from the demand-side management to the supply-side management. We need to carry out structural reforms from the supply side and strive to increase the potential growth rate so that the Chinese economy will form an L-shaped recovery.
Keywords: Structural Adjustment；Excess Capacity；Potential Growth Rate；State Space；DSGE

目录
第一章 绪论    3
1.1 问题的提出    3
1.2 论文的研究思路与研究方法    4
1.3 论文的主要内容与总体框架    5
1.4 论文的创新之处与不足    7
第二章  文献综述及理论回顾    8
第三章  基于总供给视角的中国潜在经济增长率测算    20
第四章  基于供需均衡视角的中国潜在经济增长率测算    33
4.1 引言及文献综述    33
4.2 自然失业率理论及其测算方法    34
4.3 状态空间模型及卡尔曼滤波    36
4.4模型的构建和数据说明    38
4.5 实证分析    40
4.6 估计潜在增长率    41
4.7 本章小结    43
第五章 基于动态随机一般均衡视角的中国潜在经济增长率测算    43
5.1 引言及文献综述    44
5.2 动态随机一般均衡模型理论    45
5.3 理论模型设计    46
5.4 数值模拟分析    54
5.5 中国经济潜在增长率测算    58
5.6 稳健性检验    59
5.7 本章小结    59
第六章  结论及政策建议    60
6.1 研究结论    60
6.2 政策建议    62
6.3 未来研究展望    65