影子银行、政府审计与金融安全-来自国内金融机构的经验数据(硕士)

影子银行、政府审计与金融安全-来自国内金融机构的经验数据(硕士)(论文32000字)
Shadowing banking, government audit and financial security
-Based on empirical data of domestic financial institutions
摘  要
2007-2009年，全球经济金融体系遭受次贷危机的重创，作为罪魁祸首的“影子银行”这一新兴的金融术语一时成为金融研究领域的新焦点。危机发生后，世界主要经济体和国际货币基金组织、巴塞尔银行委员会、国际清算银行和金融稳定理事会等已着手开展一系列的金融监管改革，在下一次危机到来之前做好准备，降低危机对实体经济的损害程度。
反观国内，2011年以来，受次贷危机的影响，国内银行信贷政策收紧，影子银行业务开始受到青睐，温州、鄂尔多斯等地一直有比较活跃的民间借贷地区，却开始出现“跑路”、“倒闭”的场景，中融国际信托的拍卖抵押资产多数流拍，华夏银行理财产品成为“庞氏骗局”无法兑现，中国的影子银行体系已经不再平静，严重影响了中国的金融稳定与安全。而究竟我国影子银行体系对宏观经济会产生怎样的影响，其风险状况如何，如何规避其系统风险？这些都已经成为当前国内金融运行中一个亟待解决的问题。
2007年12月，刘家义审计长首次提出国家审计是国家经济运行的“免疫系统”，而政府审计作为国家治理与经济治理的“免疫体系”，天然具备维护金融安全的作用。为此，本文基于影子银行风险影响金融稳定的作用机理，探索政府金融审计功能的发挥对影子银行引发的金融安全稳定的影响。具体行文安排如下：
第一部分：引言。介绍本文的研究背景及研究意义、研究思路和方法以及可能的创新。
第二部分：文献综述。本章节对影子银行、政府审计、系统性风险三方面的文献进行梳理。首先介绍了影子银行的概念、规模的估计以及对金融稳定的影响，其次分析了影响政府审计的因素、政府审计的功能定位以及对影子银行实施政府金融审计的必要性，而后对比了衡量金融系统性风险的研究方法，最后阐释了政府金融审计维护金融安全的作用机制并进行文献评述，为后续理论分析和研究设计奠定基础。
第三部分：理论分析。首先介绍了国外对影子银行概念的界定以及国内影子银行的概念及分类，并结合国内影子银行的现状分析了我国影子银行的特征；其次分析了国内影子银行存在的风险隐患，包括自身的风险以及加大金融体系的系统性风险；最后对比政府金融监管、内部审计及社会审计，讨论了政府金融审计在防范金融系统性风险方面的优势。
第四部分：研究设计。结合上述理论分析，理顺国内影子银行对金融体系系统性风险的正向刺激，以及政府金融审计为实现防范系统性风险的作用机理，提出了本文研究假设；设置研究变量并构建研究模型，有关影子银行、政府审计、系统性风险等变量均来自CSMAR（国泰安数据库）数据库，采用statal2版进行相关数据处理。
第五部分：实证研究。先通过描述性统计和相关分析大致介绍研究对象的基本情况，确保回归模型中不存在多重共线性，然后对研究设计中提出的假设进行回归结果分析。
第六部分：研究结论、建议与展望。根据第五部分的实证分析得出研究结论，并据此提出建议和未来的研究方向。
根据以上行文逻辑和理论推演，结合实证研究后得出如下结论：第一，以2003-2011年样本数据进行分析，发现影子银行通过杠杆效应加大系统性风险；第二发现政府审计功能发挥越好，越能缓冲影子银行对金融稳定的影响。

关键词：影子银行 政府金融审计 系统性风险

Abstract
From 2007-2009, the global financial system was hammered by the subprime crisis. As the culprit, the emerging financial term of "shadow banking" became a new focus in financial research. After the crisis, the world's major economies and IMF, the Basel committee, BIS and FSB has embarked on a series of financial regulatory reform, and got ready before the arrival of the next crisis, to reduce the damage of the crisis on the real economy.
In China, since 2011, under the influence of subprime crisis, domestic banks tightening credit, shadow banking business began to be favored. But in the active private lending areas, such as Wenzhou, Ordos and the other places, bosses started to "run" and factories "close down". Most of the auctioned mortgage assets of ZRGG being abortive auction, financial products of HXB becoming a "Ponzi scheme", unable to meet, shadow banking system of China was no longer calm, affecting the financial stability and security of China seriously. Because of this, questions may be brought out: How does the shadow banking system in China affect the macro economy, what about the risk condition, and how to avoid the systemic risk? These have become an urgent problem in the current domestic financial operation.
In December 2007, the auditor-general Liu Jiayi put forward the national audit is the "immune system" of national economic operation for the first time. As the "immune system" of national management and economic management, the government audit plays a natural role in maintaining financial safety. For this reason, based on the effect of shadow banking’s risk on financial stability, this paper explores the influence of government financial audit on financial security and stability caused by shadow banking. This paper is divided into following six parts：
Part I: Introduction. Which elaborates the research background and research significance, research ideas and methods, and possible innovations.
Part II: Literature review. This part reviews the literature of the shadow banking, government audit, systemic risk. Firstly, this part introduces the concept of shadow banking, the estimation of size and the impact on the financial stability. Secondly, this part analyzes the factors that affect the government auditing, function orientation of government audit and the necessity of the implementation on shadow banks of the government financial audit. Lastly, this part introduced the methods of measuring systemic risk, and illustrates the mechanism of the government financial audit on maintaining financial security, laying the foundation for subsequent theoretical analysis and the research design.
Part III: Theoretical analysis. At first, this section introduces the definition of shadow banking abroad and the concept and classification of shadow banking in China, and analyzes the characteristics of shadow banking by combining the current situation of the domestic shadow banking. Then this section introduces the risks of shadow banking, including its own risks and the systemic risks of the financial system. Finally, compared with the government financial regulation, internal audit and social audit, this section discusses the advantages of government financial audit on preventing financial risks.
Part IV: Research design. First of all, based on the above theoretical analysis, this part straightens out the positive stimulus that shadow banking brings on systemic risk of financial system and the mechanism how government financial audit prevents systemic risk, and puts forward the research hypothesis; And then, the part sets the research variables and build the model. All data of the shadow Banks, government audit and systemic risk variables is from CSMAR database, using statal2 version to process relevant data.
Part V: Empirical research. Through descriptive statistics and correlation analysis, this part introduces the basic situation of the research object roughly, making sure that there is no multicollinearity in the regression model. And then this part does regression analysis of the hypotheses put forward in the research design.
Part VI: Research conclusion, suggestion and prospect. By summarizing the empirical research, this part is done with research conclusions, research limitations, the improvement direction of follow-up researches and suggestions for the development of shadow banking.

Key Words: Shadow banking, Government financial audit, Systematic risk

目  录
摘  要    1
Abstract    1
目  录    1
1.绪论    1
1.1研究背景和研究意义    1
1.1.1研究背景    1
1.1.2研究目的和意义    3
1.2研究思路与方法    4
1.2.1研究思路与结构    4
1.2.2本文的研究方法    6
1.3本文研究的难点、创新和不足    6
2.文献综述    7
2.1有关影子银行方面的研究    7
2.1.1影子银行概念厘定    7
2.1.2影子银行产生的原因    8
2.1.3影子银行规模的估计    8
2.1.4.影子银行对金融稳定的影响    8
2.2有关政府审计方面的研究    9
2.2.1影响政府审计的因素    9
2.2.2政府审计功能定位    10
2.2.3影子银行与政府金融审计    10
2.3有关金融系统性风险方面的研究    11
2.4有关政府金融审计维护金融安全的实现机制的研究    12
2.5文献评述    13
3.理论分析    15
3.1 影子银行概述    15
3.1.1国内外影子银行的定义    15
3.1.2影子银行成因分析    17
3.1.3国内影子银行的分类及现状    18
3.1.4影子银行的特征    22
3.2影子银行的风险隐患    24
3.2.1影子银行自身的风险    24
3.2.2影子银行加大金融体系的系统性风险    26
3.3政府金融审计防范金融风险优势分析    27
3.3.1金融审计防范金融风险的作用    27
3.3.2政府金融审计在国家金融监督体系中的地位    28
3.3.3政府金融审计防范金融风险的优势    30
3.4本章小结    34
4.研究设计    35
4.1研究假设    35
4.1.1影子银行影响金融稳定的内在机理    35
4.1.2.政府金融审计在影子银行对金融稳定影响下的作用    36
4.2数据来源    37
4.3变量设计    37
4.3.1因变量设计    37
4.3.2自变量设计    37
4.3.3控制变量设计    38
4.4模型构建    38
5.实证研究    41
5.1描述性统计与分析    41
5.2相关性分析    42
5.3稳健性分析    42
5.4回归结果分析    43
5.4.1假设1回归分析    43
5.4.2假设2回归分析    43
6.结论与启示    45
6.1研究结论    45
6.2相关建议    45
6.2.1强化对影子银行机构的资本与杠杆率监管。    45
6.2.2健全影子银行机构的自律机制。    46
6.2.3完善信息披露制度。    46
6.2.4合理构建政府金融审计机制。    47
6.2.5构建影子银行非系统性风险应急反应机制。    47
6.3研究局限与展望    48
6.3.1研究的局限性    48
6.3.2未来研究展望    48
参考文献    49