武汉轨道交通延长运营时间的综合效益分析

武汉轨道交通延长运营时间的综合效益分析(任务书,开题报告,论文26000字)
摘要
随着城市机动车保有量的持续快速增长，城市道路交通形势严峻。而轨道交通以其众多的比较特征优势，符合城市可持续发展的要求，作为运量最大的城市公共交通客运工具，其运营规律将随着市民的出行要求而变化。随着城市的加速发展，城市对轨道交通的运营时间的需求也将增加。通过适当地延长轨道交通的运营时间，不仅能覆盖部分市民的夜间出行需求，减少个体机动化出行的同时也能为城市交通系统带来可观的综合效益。
论文首先分析了城市轨道交通的效益构成以及各效益之间的相互联系。基于这些基础理念，选用广义函数效用法对轨道交通延长运营时间的综合效益进行评价。即建立轨道交通延时运营的评价指标体系，从经济、交通、环境三个方面对评价指标进行设计。建立了基于单个轨道交通站点的乘客到达率函数的轨道交通延时运营的综合效益评价模型。最后在案例分析方面，论文根据建立的评价指标体系、评价模型以及调研和数据收集，设计了不同的城市轨道交通延时运营方案，选择武汉市轨道交通二号线站点作为案例，对轨道交通延时运营的综合效益进行了取值计算以及综合效益值的结果分析。
关键词：轨道交通；延时运营；综合效益；
Abstract
With the continuous rapid growth of urban motor vehicle ownership, urban transportation has become one of the main factors that hinder the development of cities.Rail transit, with its numerous comparative advantages, meet the requirements of sustainable urban development. As the passenger transport vehicle with the largest volume of urban public transport, its operating rules will change with the travel requirements of citizens. With the acceleration of urban development, urban rail transit operation time demand will also increase. By properly extending the operation time of rail transit, it can not only cover the travel demand of some citizens at night, but also reduce individual motorized travel and bring considerable comprehensive benefits to the urban transportation system.
Firstly, the article has been analyzed the benefit composition of urban rail transit and the interrelation among the benefits. Based on these basic concepts, the generalized function utility method is selected to evaluate the comprehensive benefits of rail transit in prolonging operation time. This article has been established the evaluation index system of rail transit delay operation and designed the evaluation index from three aspects of economy, traffic and environment. A comprehensive benefit evaluation model of rail transit delay operation based on passenger arrival rate function of single rail transit station has been established. Secondly in the aspect of case analysis, the article has been designed the different urban rail transit delay operation scheme, then chosen Wuhan Metro line 2 site as an example according to the established evaluation index system, evaluation model and research and data collection. Finally, the comprehensive benefits of rail transit delay operation have been calculated and the result of comprehensive benefit value has been analyzed.
Key Words：rail transit; delayed operation; comprehensive benefits;
目录
第1章绪论    6
1.1研究背景    6
1.2 研究意义    6
1.3国内外研究现状    7
1.3.1运营时间制约因素    7
1.3.2轨道交通系统综合效益分析    7
1.3.3运营效益评估指标体系    8
1.3.4运营效益评估模型    8
1.3.5轨道交通客流预测    8
1.3.6国内外研究现状综述    8
1.4研究方法及技术路线    9
1.4.1研究方法    9
1.4.2技术路线    9
1.5 研究内容    10
第2章轨道交通延时运营的效益评价    11
2.1轨道交通系统的效益构成    11
2.1.1交通效益    11
2.1.2经济效益    13
2.1.3环境效益    13
2.1.4各效益之间的联系    14
2.2 延时运营综合效益评价方法    14
2.3延时运营效益评价指标体系的设计原则    15
2.4 本章小结    15
第3章评价模型设计    16
3.1延时运营的站点客流量计算    16
3.1.1站点乘客到达率散点图    16
3.1.2站点乘客到达率曲线图    17
3.1.3轨道交通延时运营时间段的站点客流量计算    17
3.2评价指标的选定及取值设计    17
3.2.1站点运营管理效益C11    18
3.2.2列车运行成本C12    19
3.2.3票价收入效益C13    19
3.2.4运力替代效益C21    19
3.2.5节能效益C31    20
3.2.6 减排效益C32    20
3.2.7轨道交通线路的综合效益    21
3.3延时运营评价指标无量纲化    21
3.4确定评价指标的权重系数    21
3.5评价结果分析    22
3.6 本章小结    22
第4章案例分析    23
4.1武汉市轨道交通2号线建设与运营概述    23
4.1.1建设历史    23
4.1.2运营概述    23
4.2轨道交通延时运营方案设计    25
4.2.1方案设计思路    25
4.2.2 方案设计    25
4.3 延时运营效益评价指标取值计算    26
4.3.1 站点运营管理效益C11    27
4.3.2列车运行成本C12    29
4.3.3票价收入效益C13    30
4.3.4运力替代效益C21    31
4.3.5节能效益C31    32
4.3.6减排效益C32    33
4.4延时运营指标无量纲化计算    34
4.5延时运营指标权重计算    35
4.6不同设计方案的站点综合效益评价    35
4.6.1评价结果计算    35
4.6.2评价结果分析    36
4.7本章小结    37
第5章结论和展望    38
5.1结论    38
5.2 不足与展望    38
参考文献    39
致谢    40