大型邮轮运输市场及发展策略研究

大型邮轮运输市场及发展策略研究(任务书,开题报告,论文19000字)
摘  要
世界邮轮旅游业起步于19世纪中叶，至今已有150多年的历史。近年来，传统北美洲、欧洲邮轮旅游市场日益成熟，邮轮旅游需求市场逐渐饱和，发展重点转向亚太地区,国内邮轮运输市场正面临着难得的发展机会。因此，我们必须抓住发展机会，学习国外大型邮轮运输市场的经验，深刻认识到国内大型邮轮运输市场的不足，分析市场需求并积极探索发展策略，推进中国大型邮轮运输市场快速发展。
本论文主要从需求方面，采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法，分析目前国内外大型邮轮运输市场的发展现状，总结国外经验以及国内存在的问题，据此提出针对性的国内大型邮轮运输市场的发展策略。
依据上述思路，本文对国内外研究现状以及国内外大型邮轮运输市场的发展现状进行了总结与综述，并通过大量的文献整理，采取文献研究的方法对国内大型邮轮运输市场的需求进行了定性分析。进行数据收集，采用一元线性回归预测模型、指数曲线预测模型、二次抛物线型趋势线以及灰色预测模型对未来几年的国内邮轮市场出游人次进行了预测，进行定量分析，得出国内邮轮旅游者需求特征以及需求量。最终进行针对性的策略研究，提出一系列国内大型邮轮运输市场的发展策略。
关键词：大型邮轮运输市场；需求分析；需求预测；发展策略

Abstract
The world cruise tourism industry began in the middle of the 19th century and has been around for more than 150 years.In recent years,the traditional cruise market in North America and Europe is maturing day by day,the market of cruise tourism demand has been Mature saturation,the development emphasis has been shifted to the Asia-Pacific region,and the domestic cruise transport market is facing a rare opportunity for development.Therefore,we must seize the opportunity to learn from the experience of the foreign large-scale cruise shipping Markets,recognize the inadequacy of the domestic large-scale cruise transport market,analyse market needs and actively explore development strategies,accelerating the rapid development of China's large cruise transport market.
This paper analyzes the current situation of the development of large-scale cruise transport market at home and abroad,and summarizes foreign experiences and problems at home,according to this,the development strategy of large-scale domestic cruise transport market is put forward.
Based on the above thought, this paper summarizes the current research situation at home and abroad as well as the development situation of large-scale cruise transport market at home and abroad,and through a great deal of documentation,the demand oflarge-scale cruise transport market in China is analyzed qualitatively by the method of Literature Research.A linear one-dimensional regression model,an exponential curve prediction model,a quadratic parabolic trend line and a grey prediction modelare used to predict the number of trips to the domestic cruise market in the next few years,and conduct quantitative analysis to obtain domestic cruise tourists.Then the demand characteristics and demand of domestic cruise tourists can be derived.Finally,a series of development strategies of large-scale domestic cruise market are put forward.
Key Words：large cruise shipping market；demand analysis；demand forecast；development strategy
 
目  录
第1章 绪论    1
1.1 研究背景及意义    1
1.2国内外研究现状    1
1.3研究主要内容    2
1.4 研究方法及技术路线    2
第2章 国内外大型邮轮市场发展现状    4
2.1 国外大型邮轮市场发展现状及主要经验    4
2.1.1 国外大型邮轮市场发展现状    4
2.1.2 国外大型邮轮市场发展主要经验    4
2.2 国内大型邮轮市场发展现状及存在的问题    5
2.2.1 国内大型邮轮市场发展现状    5
2.2.2 国内大型邮轮市场发展存在的问题    8
第3章 国内大型邮轮运输市场需求分析及预测    11
3.1 国内大型邮轮运输市场需求分析    11
3.2 国内大型邮轮运输市场需求预测    16
3.2.1 一元线性回归预测模型    17
3.2.2 指数曲线模型    19
3.2.3 二次抛物线型趋势线预测    21
3.2.4 灰色模型预测法    23
3.3预测结果分析    26
第4章 大型邮轮运输市场发展策略    28
4.1 营造良好的发展环境    28
4.2 加速邮轮产品的创新与开发    29
4.3 积极探索营销策略    29
第5章 结论与展望    31
5.1 研究结论    31
5.2 研究展望    31
参考文献    32
附  录    34
致  谢    36