人口老龄化对居民消费水平的影响分析-以江苏省为例

人口老龄化对居民消费水平的影响分析-以江苏省为例(论文20000字)
摘要：由于新生儿比率下降，死亡率趋于稳定或者下降，人均寿命增长，使得人口中青少年比重与劳动人口比重下降，老龄人口所占比重提高的现象被称为人口老龄化现象。社会经济不断发展必定会带来老龄化的结果。因为社会经济发展的各方面在不同水平下都会被老龄化影响，目前许多专家学者开始关注这一话题。20世纪末，江苏省开始进入老龄化的队伍，老龄人口增长已经出现阻碍消费水平发展的现象。
本文首先引入文章的研究背景、意义，对国内外研究现状进行了分析讨论，并对研究思路及方法进行了阐述。其次，分析了江苏省人口年龄结构现状并预测分析了江苏省未来15年人口老龄化程度发展情况。然后对江苏省居民消费水平现状进行了分析，并运用了回归分析法分析了影响消费水平的相关因素影响程度大小，得出目前影响江苏省消费水平最大的因素是人均GDP水平、物价指数、人均收入水平。接着，本文利用人口结构数据对江苏省人口老龄化影响城乡居民消费水平的程度进行了实例分析。得出结论：第一，江苏省城镇居民消费被老龄化影响的程度大于农村被老龄化影响的程度。第二，江苏省城镇居民消费被劳动人口比重变化影响的程度大于农村被劳动人口比重变化影响的程度。最后，本文提出应对江苏省人口老龄化程度不断加深、促进居民消费水平发展的策略，并总结了本文存在的缺陷以及对未来的期望。研究这个问题，可以在江苏省人口老龄化程度达到顶峰之前，做好全面筹备，找到方法将其对居民消费的负面影响降到最低。
关键词：人口老龄化；居民消费水平；江苏省

The Influence of Aging Population on Residents’ Consumption——Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example
Abstract: Population aging is a kind of phenomena that caused by the declining percentage of youth and labor population and the increasing percentage of aging population,which was caused by the denatality and the stable mortality or the decline of mortality.The development of social and economic must lead to the result of population aging .Because every aspect of the development of society and economic was affected by the problem of population aging in different degrees.At present many experts and researchers have paid attention to this topic.At the end of the 20th century,Jiangsu province started to enter the aging society,the development of aging population has hindered the growth of consumption.
At first,this paper introduced the backgrounds,the meanings and analyzed the researches status at home and abroad and we elaborated the research thoughts and methods.Secondly,this paper analyzed the present situation and the development of the aging population in Jiangsu province and we make a predictive parsing on the development tendency of population aging in the next 15 years.Then,we analyzed the present situation of the residents’consumption level,we used regression analysis method to analyze the related factors which influenced the residents’ consumption level and how much effect they made. And then we knew that the factors which influenced residents’ consumption level most in Jiangsu province are the level of GDP per capita,price index and per capita income level.Then this paper used population structure data to do the empirical analysis of how much effect the population aging did on cousumption in Jiangsu province.We drew the conclusions: Firstly,the impact of the development of population aging on the urban residents’consumption level of Jiangsu province is greater than its impact on the rural residents’consumption level.Secondly,the influence of the changes of the proportion of working population on the urban residents’consumption level is greater than its influence of the rural residents’ consumption level.At last, this paper puts forward countermeasures to deal with the problems of aging population and promote the growth of residents’consumption in Jiangsu province.And we summarized shortcomings and forecast prospect.In order to prepare well for the arriving highest peak of population aging,we planned to study this topic,find measures to minimize its negative effects on residents’ consumption.
Key words:aging population;residents’consumption level;Jiangsu province
 

目 录
摘要    I
Abstract    II
1、绪论    1
1.1研究背景    1
1.2研究意义    1
1.2.1理论意义    1
1.2.2实践意义    1
1.3国内外研究现状    1
1.3.1国外研究现状    2
1.3.2国内研究现状    2
1.4研究思路与方法    4
1.4.1研究思路    4
1.4.2研究方法    5
2、江苏省人口结构现状及预测分析    5
2.1江苏省人口结构现状    5
2.2江苏省人口老龄化特点    6
2.3人口老龄化原因    9
2.4江苏省人口老龄化发展趋势预测分析    11
2.4.1江苏省老年系数对比分析    11
2.4.2江苏省老龄人口未来发展趋势预测    12
3、江苏省居民消费水平现状及预测分析    13
3.1江苏省居民消费水平现状分析    13
3.2江苏省居民消费水平相关因素分析    14
3.2.1人均GDP水平分析    15
3.2.2居民人均收入水平分析    15
3.2.3物价指数水平分析    16
3.2.4人口年龄结构分析    16
3.3消费水平与相关指标的实证分析    16
3.3.1构建模型    16
3.3.2多元回归分析    17
3.4江苏省老龄化人口消费习惯分析    18
4、江苏省人口老龄化对城乡居民消费水平影响的实证分析    18
4.1对城镇居民消费水平影响    19
4.2对农村居民消费水平影响    20
5、结论与建议    20
5.1结论    20
5.2对江苏省人口老龄化现状提出建议    21
5.2.1调整人口政策，提高人口素质    21
5.2.2推迟老龄人口退休年龄    22
5.2.3改善产业政策    22
5.2.4完善社会保障体系    22
6、不足与展望    22
参考文献    22
致谢    25