“二孩”生育意愿及其影响因素研究-基于媒体工作者的调查(硕士)

“二孩”生育意愿及其影响因素研究-基于媒体工作者的调查(硕士)(论文38000字)
摘要
二孩生育意愿，即处于可生育孩子年龄段的夫妇想要生育第二个孩子的愿望，其主要内容包括育龄夫妇是否有生育第二个孩子的意愿，希望何时生育第二个孩子，以及对生育第二个孩子性别的需求，还包括影响生育意愿的因素。由于我国全面二孩政策刚刚实施，学术界目前主要以城市和农村的居民为研究对象，研究其政策开放后的二孩生育意愿，但几乎没有基于行业和职业角度的研究。在此研究背景下，本研究旨在通过调查媒体工作者探析二孩生育意愿及其影响因素，为今后研究我国不同行业工作者的二孩实际生育意愿及影响因素提供实证资料，对将来完善二孩生育政策具有理论意义和应用价值。
以上述分析为基础，本文在研究过程中首先运用生育率经济学理论中的孩子成本-效用理论、孩子数量质量替代理论和生育率供给与需求理论对媒体工作者二孩生育意愿及其影响因素做出合理解释，并对我国人口政策变迁进行了简单梳理。其次，设计样本、描述样本基本特征，分析样本的影响因素进行了分析。
单因素交叉分析结果显示，在个人层面，本人年龄、文化程度、户口性质、人加班时间、月收入、所在单位部门、职务和职位对媒体工作者二孩生育意愿有显著影响；家庭层面，配偶年龄、加班时间、工作性质，母亲、婆婆是否健在，父亲、母亲、公公过去1年健康状况，母亲、公公、婆婆年龄，父亲与受访者同住情况，父母公婆婆经济来源，去年家庭总收支情况对对媒体工作者二孩生育意愿有显著影响；生育成本层面，家庭收入是否允许生育二孩、生育一孩最理想原因、想生男孩原因对媒体工作者二孩生育意愿有显著影响；生育观念层面，丈夫、父母、公婆以及一孩对生育二孩的态度对媒体工作者二孩生育意愿有显著影响；生育政策层面，全面二孩政策了解程度、单位或地区产假设置情况、单位或地区产陪假设置情况对媒体工作者二孩生育意愿有显著影响。
而多分类Logistic回归分析结果显示，相对于“还没决定好是否生育二孩”的媒体工作者，促使媒体工作者打算生育二孩的因素主要有本人本地非农户籍、本人外地非农户籍、中共党员政治面貌，配偶年龄31-35岁、配偶每周加班时间1-4小时和8-12小时、配偶不享受失业保险、配偶工作属于媒体行业、婆婆有其它收入等20项指标。同时，本人年龄20-26岁、31-35岁、大学本科学历、不享受工伤保险、配偶大学本科学历、每周加班4-8小时、月收入3001-5000元、一孩支持态度无所谓等五个层面中的30项指标均对媒体工作者不打算生育二孩倾向有显著影响。
关键词：生育意愿；影响因素；媒体工作者；多分类Logistic回归

Abstract
Fertility intention of the second child mainly refers to the desire of the couples of child-bearing age who want to have a second child, including not only whether they want to have a second child or not, when they want to have a second child and their gender preference for the second child, but the factors that affect fertility intention. For “two child policy” was just implemented in China, the title of the fertility intention of the second child of urban and rural residents after the policy has been discussed in a wide range of research, however, the majority of the papers concentrated in urban and rural subjects, few people explored the subject from the angle of industry and professional characteristics. Under the background, this study discussed fertility intention of the second child and its influencing factors through the investigation of media workers to provide empirical data for understanding actual fertility intention of the second child and its influencing factors of different industrial workers in China, and provide a reference for the perfection of the next “two child birth policy”.
Based on above analysis, firstly, this study applies the theory of children cost -utility, the theory of number-quality replacement of children, the theory of fertility supply and demand in fertility economics theory to make a reasonable explanation for fertility intention of the second child and its influencing factors of media workers. And a simple summary of the change of our country's population policy has been made. The second part are the sample design, the basic characteristics of the sample description and analysis of result characteristics of sample fertility intention. Finally, the influencing factors of fertility intention of the second child of media workers were discussed with multiple classification Logistic method.
Results of single factor cross analysis show that at the level of the influence of the personal factors on the fertility intention of the second child of media workers, the personal age, education level, weekly overtime, monthly income, organization of employer, position and business trip have significant impacts on the fertility intention of the second child. In terms of family factors, the age, educational level, weekly overtime, monthly income and work nature of the media workers’ spouses have significant impacts on the fertility intention of the second child, but the impacts of the nature of the household registration, political status and social security treatment of the media workers’ spouses are not significant; the survival status, health status, the needs of care and age of the media workers’ parents have significant effects on the fertility intention of the second child, but the effects of the living conditions and economic sources of their parents are not significant; the source of family income, income and expenditure situation and housing situation of the media workers have significant effects on the fertility intention of the second child, but the influence of family composition is not significant.
Results of multiple classification Logistic  analysis show that in terms of the factors of fertility cost, compare with the housekeeping service expenditure on the fertility of the second child, the medical expenditure, education investment and baby supplies or services investment have significant influences on the fertility intention of the second child of media workers, while the effects of insurance expenditure and good fertility investment are not significant. In terms of the factors of fertility concept, compared with the personal concept of media workers, the concepts of spouse and parents make media workers tend to have the second child, but the attitude of the first child has no significant influence. In terms of the factors of fertility policy, whether employer or area have child care services provided to the children at the age of 0-3 years old has a significant impact on the fertility intention of the second child of media workers, but other factors have no significant effect.
Keywords:Fertility intention; influencing factors; media workers; multiple classification Logistic

目录
绪论    1
第一节  研究的背景与意义    1
一、研究背景    1
二、研究意义    2
第二节  文献综述    2
一、国内文献综述    2
二、国外文献综述    4
第三节  研究目的及内容    5
一、研究目的    5
二、研究内容    5
第四节  研究方法与流程    6
一、研究方法    6
二、研究流程    6
第五节  研究创新及不足    7
一、研究重点    7
二、研究创新    7
三、研究不足    7
第一章  相关理论及政策方针    8
第一节  生育率经济学理论    8
一、孩子成本——效用理论    8
二、孩子数量质量替代理论    8
三、生育率供给与需求理论    9
第二节  人口政策梳理    9
一、人口政策的发展简史    9
二、全面二孩政策学界探讨梳理    10
第二章  媒体工作者二孩生育意愿分析    11
第一节  样本设计    11
一、方法设计    11
二、抽样选择与样本构成    11
第二节  样本基本特征    12
一、样本个体特征    12
二、样本配偶特征    16
三、样本父母特征    18
四、样本的家庭特征    20
第三节  二孩生育意愿总体分析    21
一、二孩生育意愿    21
二、二孩生育数量偏好    22
三、二孩生育性别偏好    22
四、二孩生育时间偏好    22
第三章  媒体工作者二孩生育意愿影响因素分析    24
第一节  媒体工作者二孩生育意愿影响因素指标体系构建    24
第二节  媒体工作者二孩生育意愿影响因素的回归分析    25
一、单因素交叉分析    26
二、多元回归分析    44
第四章  结论与对策建议    52
第一节  结论    52
第二节  对策建议    53
参考文献    54
附录    57
致谢    62