基于灾害链的地铁火灾风险评估及其工程应用

基于灾害链的地铁火灾风险评估及其工程应用(论文13000字)
摘  要
随着经济的发展，城市中的轨道交通建设的规模越来越大。地铁项目作为城市中轨道交通的重要组成部分发展非常迅速，另一方面地铁因为其深处地下、封闭等特殊的环境，其发生灾害的严重性也非常的高。
当灾害发生火灾的时候，地铁因为其独特封闭的环境，通常都会引发次生与衍生灾害，使得整个灾害的发展呈现出一种链式的结构。而数据表明，地铁火灾发生的次数在地铁灾害中占绝大多数，并且造成的的人身伤害与经济损失更大，因此，对地铁进行风险研究具有重要的意义。而本文就地铁这一特殊对象，引入灾害链的相关理论，对地铁系统的关于灾害链的风险评估进行研究。
首先通过了解灾害链相关概念及地铁内部结构与运营的特点，通过提出地铁内火灾产生灾害链的可能性，接着运用链式风险评价的知识去对其进行风险评价与分析，建立风险评估模型。最后使用贝叶斯公式与复杂网络的知识去进行评价分析。最后通过经典案例分析，用系统动力学软件vensim软件绘制灾害链图，用前文得出的算法模型进行计算。并对得到的结果进行分析，并站在管理者的角度提出决策建议。

关键词： 地铁；灾害链；风险评价；复杂网络；贝叶斯公式
 
Abstract
With the development of the economy, the scale of urban rail transit construction is growing. The subway is the main form of urban rail transit. On the other hand, because of its special environment such as underground and closed, the subway has a very high severity of disasters.
    When a disaster occurs, the subway usually causes secondary and derivative disasters because of its unique and closed environment, which makes the development of the entire disaster show a chain structure. The data shows that the number of subway fires occurs in the majority of subway disasters, and the personal injury and economic losses are greater. Therefore, it is of great significance to conduct risk research on the subway disaster chain. In this paper, the special object of the subway, the theory of disaster chain and system dynamics is introduced, and the disaster risk assessment of the subway system is studied.
    Firstly, by understanding the related concepts of the disaster chain and the characteristics of the internal structure and operation of the subway, the risk of generating a disaster chain in the subway is proposed, and then the risk assessment and analysis of the chain risk assessment is used to establish a risk assessment model. Finally, Bayesian formula and knowledge of complex networks are used for evaluation analysis. Finally, it is applied to the risk assessment of the subway, and the value of the risk assessment results of each node on the subway is obtained. The risk management of the subway fire provides a reliable theoretical basis.
Key Words：Rail；Hazard chain；Risk assessment；complex networks；Bayesian formula
 

目录
摘要…………………………………………………………………………………I
ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………II
第一章  前言    1
1.1 地铁灾害链研究背景及意义    1
1.2 灾害链与灾害链应用的国内外研究现状    1
1.3课题思路与研究方法    2
第二章 地铁火灾灾害链    2
2.1灾害链的形成机理    7
2.2地铁火灾灾害链    8
2.2.1 地铁运行灾害学分析    8
2.2.2地铁事故特征    8
2.2.3地铁灾害链的影响因素分析    9
2.2.4地铁火灾灾害链的形成    11
第三章 灾害链的风险评价理论    13
3.1风险评价    13
3.2链式风险评价理论    13
3.3灾害链风险的度量模式    16
3.3.1灾害链的网状结构特征    16
3.3.2灾害风险的度量模式    16
3.3.3节点灾害损失的等级划分    18
3.3.4连接边的概率分析    18
第四章 典型灾害链事件分析    20
4.1 背景事件介绍    20
4.2 事件灾害链分析    20
4.3 地铁火灾灾害链分析评价    21
4.4 地铁火灾灾害链的结果分析与控制决策    22
第五章 结  语    23
参考文献    24